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Monday, April 19, 2021

HEADLINE Projects Trump Victory

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As of 11/3/2020 at 10:51 PM CST, and based on data currently available, Donald Trump will win re-election. This (early) projection is based on a number of factors:

  1. President Trump’s presumptive victory in Florida.
    • Trump outperforms his 2016 Miami-Dade county turnout by a significant margin: 333,999 (33.8% in 2016) to 529,000+ (46% in 2020).
    • Trump currently holds a lead of 5,619,697 votes to Biden’s 5,237,752 votes.
  2. The percentage of early voting already counted.
  3. Trump’s popular vote lead count
    • Trump popular vote count: 44,085,006
    • Biden popular vote count: 40,648,018
      • UPDATE 10:49 PM: Biden overtakes Trump popular vote lead
        • Trump popular vote count: 55,589,565
        • Biden popular vote count: 56,910,720
  4. Stronger than expected showings in Rust Belt states. 
  5. Trump’s potential to flip Virginia, which fell to Hillary Clinton in 2016.
  • 10:30 PM: Major Battleground Update! Arizona swings to Biden, potentially narrowing Trump’s path to re-election.
  • 11:07 PM: Texas and Ohio called for Trump after hotly-contested early voting kept both candidates neck and neck.
  • 11:25 PM: Donald Trump wins Montana and Iowa.
  • 11:42 PM: Donald Trump wins Florida.
  • 11:45 PM: Biden makes statement to supporters, exuding confidence but cautioning that the vote tally might take days to finalize.
  • 1:30 AM: Trump responded by claiming that Democrats are trying to steal election:

Trump’s victory could still be officially called tonight.

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President Donald J. Trump disembarks Air Force One at Manchester-Boston Regional Airport Sunday, Oct. 25, 2020, in Manchester, N.H. (Official White House Photo by Shealah Craighead)

***This is an extremely early projection and any number of variables could change the election outcome. This projection will be updated frequently throughout the night as new data/information becomes available.***

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