As of 11/3/2020 at 10:51 PM CST, and based on data currently available, Donald Trump will win re-election. This (early) projection is based on a number of factors:
- President Trump’s presumptive victory in Florida.
- Trump outperforms his 2016 Miami-Dade county turnout by a significant margin: 333,999 (33.8% in 2016) to 529,000+ (46% in 2020).
- Trump currently holds a lead of 5,619,697 votes to Biden’s 5,237,752 votes.
- The percentage of early voting already counted.
- Trump’s popular vote lead count.
- Trump popular vote count: 44,085,006
- Biden popular vote count: 40,648,018
- UPDATE 10:49 PM: Biden overtakes Trump popular vote lead
- Trump popular vote count: 55,589,565
- Biden popular vote count: 56,910,720
- UPDATE 10:49 PM: Biden overtakes Trump popular vote lead
- Stronger than expected showings in Rust Belt states.
- Trump’s potential to flip Virginia, which fell to Hillary Clinton in 2016.
- UPDATE: AP News calls Virginia for Biden.
- 10:30 PM: Major Battleground Update! Arizona swings to Biden, potentially narrowing Trump’s path to re-election.
- 11:07 PM: Texas and Ohio called for Trump after hotly-contested early voting kept both candidates neck and neck.
- 11:25 PM: Donald Trump wins Montana and Iowa.
- 11:42 PM: Donald Trump wins Florida.
- 11:45 PM: Biden makes statement to supporters, exuding confidence but cautioning that the vote tally might take days to finalize.
- 1:30 AM: Trump responded by claiming that Democrats are trying to steal election:
We are up BIG, but they are trying to STEAL the Election. We will never let them do it. Votes cannot be cast after the Polls are closed!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) November 4, 2020
Trump’s victory could still be officially called tonight.
***This is an extremely early projection and any number of variables could change the election outcome. This projection will be updated frequently throughout the night as new data/information becomes available.***
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