HEADLINE Projects Trump Victory

As of 11/3/2020 at 10:51 PM CST, and based on data currently available, Donald Trump will win re-election. This (early) projection is based on a number of factors:

1. President Trump’s presumptive victory in Florida.
   • Trump outperforms his 2016 Miami-Dade county turnout by a significant margin: 333,999 (33.8% in 2016) to 529,000+ (46% in 2020).
   • Trump currently holds a lead of 5,619,697 votes to Biden’s 5,237,752 votes.
2. The percentage of early voting already counted.
3. Trump’s popular vote lead count. 
   • Trump popular vote count: 44,085,006
   • Biden popular vote count: 40,648,018
     • UPDATE 10:49 PM: Biden overtakes Trump popular vote lead
       • Trump popular vote count: 55,589,565
       • Biden popular vote count: 56,910,720
4. Stronger than expected showings in Rust Belt states. 
5. Trump’s potential to flip Virginia, which fell to Hillary Clinton in 2016.
   • UPDATE: AP News calls Virginia for Biden.

• 10:30 PM: Major Battleground Update! Arizona swings to Biden, potentially narrowing Trump’s path to re-election.
• 11:07 PM: Texas and Ohio called for Trump after hotly-contested early voting kept both candidates neck and neck.
• 11:25 PM: Donald Trump wins Montana and Iowa.
• 11:42 PM: Donald Trump wins Florida.
• 11:45 PM: Biden makes statement to supporters, exuding confidence but cautioning that the vote tally might take days to finalize.
• 1:30 AM: Trump responded by claiming that Democrats are trying to steal election:

We are up BIG, but they are trying to STEAL the Election. We will never let them do it. Votes cannot be cast after the Polls are closed!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) November 4, 2020

Trump’s victory could still be officially called tonight.

***This is an extremely early projection and any number of variables could change the election outcome. This projection will be updated frequently throughout the night as new data/information becomes available.***